Uncapped with Jack Altman

Uncapped #48 | Tarek Mansour from Kalshi

Alt Capital 47m 6 days ago

Conversations with people I admire about things I’m genuinely interested in.

0:00 –:––

Show Notes

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Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi.

Kalshi is a regulated prediction market exchange valued at $22B in 2026 where people trade on the outcomes of real-world events – things like inflation prints, Fed decisions, elections, or weather events. Instead of betting against a house, users trade against each other in a market, and prices reflect the collective probability of an outcome happening.

Before starting Kalshi, Tarek worked as a quantitative trader at Goldman Sachs as a structured credit and equities analyst and at Citadel as a global macro trader. During his time at these firms, he realized a common thread: a lot of trading stemmed from an opinion on a future event.

We covered the idea behind prediction markets and how they offer a more direct way to trade on beliefs about the future. The conversation follows the long, difficult path to building a regulated exchange in the U.S., from early skepticism to ultimately winning a landmark legal battle. We also discuss how these markets can improve forecasting, enable new forms of hedging, and change how information gets priced.

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Timestamps:

() Intro

() Kalshi’s genesis

() Regulation-focused from inception

() Suing the government

() Gambling vs. financial markets

() Defining insider trading

() Incentive structure of the system

() Investing vs. trading

() Hedging use cases

() Scaling a lean team