No Priors: Artificial Intelligence | Technology | Startups
Forecasting the Future with Kalshi: America’s First Regulated Prediction Market
At this moment of inflection in technology, co-hosts Elad Gil and Sarah Guo talk to the world's leading AI engineers, researchers and founders about the biggest questions: How far away is AGI? What markets are at risk for disruption? How will commerce, culture, and society change? What’s happening in state-of-the-art in research? “No Priors” is your guide to the AI revolution. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com.
Sarah Guo is a startup investor and the founder of Conviction, an investment firm purpose-built to serve intelligent software, or "Software 3.0" companies. She spent nearly a decade incubating and investing at venture firm Greylock Partners.
Elad Gil is a serial entrepreneur and a startup investor. He was co-founder of Color Health, Mixer Labs (which was acquired by Twitter). He has invested in over 40 companies now worth $1B or more each, and is also author of the High Growth Handbook.
Show Notes
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In this week’s episode of No Priors, Sarah sits down with Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi—the first CFTC-regulated prediction market exchange in the U.S. They dive into Kalshi’s recent victory to legalize election betting, explore ethical questions around trading on elections, and discuss whether prediction markets can offer more accuracy than traditional polls. Tarek shares insights on the history of futures markets, the line between gambling and financial trading, and the psychology behind betting. Plus, Sarah makes a live election bet, and Tarek reveals some of Kalshi’s most intriguing markets.
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Show Notes:
Introduction
Sarah makes a live election bet on Kalshi
Getting approved and regulated by CFTC
Going up against the CFTC to legalize election betting
Debating the ethics of trading on elections
Gambling vs. trading
Context and purpose of futures markets
The human psychology behind speculating /Humans conditioned to risk taking
Building a healthy exchange and scaling liquidity
Introducing leverage and working with clearinghouses
Polls vs. prediction markets
Conditional markets
What makes Kalshi’s markets accurate
Tarek’s insights on the most interesting trades and markets on the platform
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